Vietnamese Coffee Poised for Accelerated Growth in Final Months of the Year

Low inventory levels, weather-related disruptions to global supply, and rising importer standards — set against the backdrop of Vietnam's already established coffee quality and brand influence — are expected to drive both production volume and export prices higher in the final months of 2026.

Coffee Exports Exceed USD 6 Billion in First Eight Months

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), Vietnam exported nearly 1.7 million tons of coffee in the first eight months of 2026, generating over USD 6 billion in export revenue. Export volume grew by more than 10% year-on-year, but export value declined 11.2% due to lower export prices.

The European Union and the United States remain Vietnam's primary coffee export markets. Additionally, several Asian markets led by China are emerging as new growth poles for Vietnamese coffee exports.

Coffee prices are expected to trend upward going forward. Notably, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will officially take effect on December 30, 2026, with exemptions for small and micro enterprises.

EUDR Compliance as a Competitive Advantage

Vicofa noted that while some coffee-producing countries still have relatively limited compliance with EUDR requirements, Vietnam is well positioned to capitalize on this window of opportunity — particularly for coffee beans that meet the regulation's standards, which present especially promising export prospects.

Currently, over 30% of Vietnam's coffee-growing area holds sustainable production certifications, providing an important foundation for meeting the increasingly stringent standards of import markets. Future export growth will therefore depend heavily on the capacity to meet sustainability and EUDR standards, alongside greater deep processing efforts and product quality improvement.

Strategic Priorities for the 2026-2027 Coffee Season

Entering the 2026-2027 coffee season, Vicofa recommended several measures for the industry to seize EU market opportunities. Key priorities include: intensifying exports of EUDR-compliant coffee beans; expanding exports of deeply processed coffee products; and actively developing premium categories such as specialty coffee and organic coffee to meet high-end European market demand. The association also called for consolidating partnerships between producers and exporters to ensure stable supply.

On the market front, Vicofa recommended continuing to strengthen national-level trade promotion activities in high-potential markets including China, Russia, South Korea, and Algeria. It also urged support for enterprises to establish connections with large retail chains in Asia and Europe to expand sales channels for deeply processed coffee products.

Following the success of the Vietnam Amazing Cup 2026 competition, the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association partnered with Shanghai Maiji Information Technology Co., Ltd. to hold the Vietnam Amazing Cup China Roadshow 2026 series in China, promoting the top 10 Arabica and top 10 Robusta products to the international market.

Production and Prices Expected to Accelerate

Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of Vicofa, believes Vietnamese coffee is poised for accelerated growth in both production volume and prices in the final months of the year.

Currently, approximately 35%-40% of Vietnam's coffee supply can meet EUDR requirements. Many buyers are now concentrating purchases of EUDR-compliant Vietnamese coffee for contracts starting from October 2026. This factor alone could drive an 8%-10% increase in Vietnam's coffee export volume. Notably, EUDR-compliant batches are expected to command a premium of approximately USD 50 per ton over conventional coffee, which could significantly boost export revenue.

Nguyen Nam Hai also noted that global demand for deeply processed coffee is growing rapidly, making it a key driver for Vietnam's coffee industry to achieve its target of USD 9 billion in export revenue this year.